Ecological Indicators (Apr 2024)
Identification of land use conflicts and dynamic response analysis of Natural-Social factors in rapidly urbanizing areas − a case study of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River
Abstract
The prolonged and rapid urbanization has intensified land use conflicts, consequently escalating ecological risks. However, the current deficiency in acknowledging the adverse ecological impacts of these conflicts hampers effective identification and governance. Taking the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR) as an example, we analyzed regional land use conflicts in terms of scope, intensity, and spatial–temporal patterns based on the “risk-effect” conflict identification framework and the center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse method. Subsequently, we elucidated the dynamic response of the 12 natural-social factors to changes in conflict intensity using a random forest model. The results showed a significant 2.9 % decrease in the proportion of land use conflict areas during the latter decade (2010–2020) compared to the first decade (2000–2010), and there was a noticeable shift in the center of gravity of the conflict towards the northwest. Over the past 20 years, the predominant conflict intensity in the UAMRYR has been characterized as mild and moderate. Specifically, the proportion of mild and moderate conflict area accounted for 16.02 % and 8.51 % of the region’s total area from 2000 to 2010. This proportion decreased to 15.84 % and 7.62 % from 2010 to 2020, respectively. Variations in conflict intensity were mainly influenced by climate (annual precipitation, average annual temperature), topography (elevation), and economic development (GDP density), displaying pronounced nonlinear characteristics. Accordingly, the investigation of regional land use conflict driving mechanism and governance should fully consider the nonlinear response of the influencing factors. Additionally, this study provides methodological guidance for identifying land use conflicts in rapidly urbanizing areas, serving as a foundation for decision-making in territorial spatial governance.
