Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia

Abstract

A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for Ro 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is Ro = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Local stability
• Basic reproductive number
• Public health education
• Personal protective measures
• Optimal control