The Deep Crisis of Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament: The State of Play and the Challenges

Abstract

After the golden age of arms control, Russia and the United States are no longer engaged in arms control negotiations. The landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was officially terminated on 2 August 2019, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expires in February 2021. The continued political alienation between Russia and the West, combined with new military-technological developments, will undermine strategic stability. A new arms race is looming with severe implications for global nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, and regional stability. Neither superpower seems to have a strategy for developing arms control and disarmament. On the contrary, both sides are pursuing costly programs to replace and modernize their Cold War strategic arsenals. A more ambitious approach is necessary for further reductions in nuclear arsenals and the extension of long-standing arms control commitments. The collapse of the INF Treaty could have been prevented by reciprocal inspections to verify treaty compliance. The United States and Russia can agree to extend New START to 2026 and to undertake a wider and structured discussion about what they could do to enhance strategic stability. Such a model must take into account third-country actors, missile defense, precision-guided conventional strike systems, and future actions in outer space and cyberspace. NATO and Russia need to launch a substantive dialogue on how to reduce the risk of hazardous military activities and to prevent military escalation caused by accidents and miscalculations. Other nuclear-armed states and their different types of delivery systems must be part of the disarmament process.

Keywords

• strategic arms control
• disarmament
• strategic stability
• arms control regimes
• nonproliferation
• nuclear weapons