Deep Learning for Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Levels in Eastern China

Abstract

Abstract Skilled seasonal forecasting will effectively reduce the economic losses caused by droughts and floods. Because of the powerful data mining capability of deep learning networks, it is increasingly applied in studies of seasonal rainfall prediction. However, there remain two prominent issues in the modeling process: the lack of enough training samples and the effect of a small number of extreme values on the model optimization. To tackle these deficiencies, we combine strategies such as principal component analysis, reduction of model hidden layers, and early‐stopping with Attention U‐Net to construct a rainfall classification forecasting model. These steps reduced the model outfitting and improved the model generalization. The results show that the prediction accuracy of this network with leads of 1–3 months is obviously better than that of the numerical model. Further analysis also supports that the spatial features of precipitation predicted by the network are very close to the observations.

Keywords

• deep learning
• seasonal prediction
• summer rainfall
• U‐Net