Peculiarities of financial dollarization during martial law: case of Ukraine Authors

Abstract

The article evaluates the peculiarities of banking sector dollarization in Ukraine with the use of econometric tools and a systems approach, conducts a scenario analysis for dollarization dynamics during martial law, and develops a framework for recommendations with the consideration of long-term financial stability goals. The study finds that the inflation-targeting regime has gradually reduced the dollarization of loans and deposits, but levels remain high. During the full-scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine, the record-low levels of dollarization and NBU restrictions prevented the rapid increase in dollarization as was previously observed during economic crises. The study also finds that loan dollarization is highly dependent on deposit dollarization and that economic agents tend to choose a more stable currency during periods of high inflation and exchange rate volatility. The scenario analysis forecasts that deposit dollarization will continue to grow during the crisis period and high uncertainty, while loan dollarization will stabilize on a new, higher level. To ensure financial stability on a long-term horizon, the de-dollarization strategy should include monetary policy, vertical development of the financial market, in particular, the development of the bonds market and alternative hryvnia instruments, as well as the use of macroprudential tools.

Keywords

• monetary policy
• financial dollarization
• econometric approach
• systems approach
• scenario analysis
• banking sector dollarization
• financial stability
• transmission mechanism