Revista de Saúde Pública (Dec 2012)
Tendência da epidemia de casos de aids no Sul do Brasil no período de 1986 a 2008 Tendencia de la epidemia de casos de sida en el Sur de Brasil en el período de 1986 a 2008 Trends in the epidemic of Aids cases in Southern Brazil from 1986 to 2008
Abstract
OBJETIVO: Descrever a tendência dos casos de aids por sexo e faixa etária de 1986 a 2008. MÉTODOS: Foi analisada a tendência da aids por faixa etária e por sexo, em Londrina, PR, em dois períodos: 1986-1995 e 1996-2008. Dentre os modelos polinomiais, o de primeiro grau explicou melhor a tendência da epidemia da aids nos dois períodos. Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência para homens que fazem sexo com homens (HSH), usuários de drogas injetáveis (UDI), homens heterossexuais e mulheres. RESULTADOS: No primeiro período, de 1986 a 1995, houve incremento das taxas de incidência em quase todas as faixas etárias e crescimento da epidemia em ambos os sexos (p OBJETIVO: Describir la tendencia de los casos de sida por sexo y grupo etario de 1986 a 2008. MÉTODOS: Se analizó la tendencia de sida por grupo etario y por sexo, en Londrina, PR, Brasil, en dos períodos: 1986-1995 y 1996-2008. Entre los modelos polinomiales, o de primer grado explicó mejor la tendencia de la epidemia de sida en los dos períodos. Se calcularon las tasas de incidencia para hombres que tienen sexo con hombres (HSH), usuarios de drogas inyectables (UDI), hombres heterosexuales y mujeres. RESULTADOS: En el primer período, de 1986 a 1995, hubo incremento de las tasas de incidencia en casi todas los grupos etarios y crecimiento de la epidemia en ambos sexos (p OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the incidence of Aids cases according to age and gender from 1986 to 2008. METHODS: Analyses of Aids trends according to age group and to gender was carried out Londrina, Southern Brazil. The timeframe was divided into two periods (1986-1995 and 1996-2008). Of the polynomial models, it was the first-degree polynomial model which best explained the Aids epidemic within the two periods. The incidence rate of Aids among men who have sex with other men (MSM), injecting drug users (IDU), heterosexual men and women was calculated. RESULTS: During the first period, from 1986 to 1995, there was an increase in the incidence of Aids in almost all age groups and the epidemic spread across both sexes (p < 0.001), although this was more marked in men aged 14-39. The second period (1996-2008) did not show a positive or negative statistical increase, indicating that the epidemic had stabilized. A significant fall in the rate for the male 14 to 29 age group was found, with increases of 0.88 and 0.87 for the first and second period respectively. Cases in women aged 50 and over showed a marked increase (p = 0.019). The IDU and MSM groups predominated as the categories with the most exposure, with MSM taking over from IDU in the last three years of the study. From 2000 onwards, incidences in females aged 15 to 49 overtook that of heterosexual men. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a decrease in incidence in the younger age groups and stabilization in the other age groups. There is a need for different approaches in order to reach groups with several characteristics due to the increase in the proportion of women and MSM within the exposure categories.
