Forecasting and risk management in Tlemcen: Legislation and urban master plans

Abstract

Tlemcen suffered several disasters since the country's independence in 1962. Some disasters come back every year such as floods, pollution, landslides and forest fires. This city has experienced four urban master plans which are those of 1960, 1966, 1977 and 1998. They have not achieved their objectives to prevent and manage the risks facing the city. Dice then, we have questioned the conformity of the city to the legal framework of prevention and risk management, the involvement of urban master plans to generate risks, and the application on the ground of proposals of struggle against risks. To answer these questions, we first checked the compliance of urban configuration of the city to the legislation, especially respect for urban servitudes, the removal of hazardous activities from urban fabrics, and the projection of safe accommodation area in the event of disasters. Then we have detected out the urban orientations that have caused risks. Finally, we calculated the rate of implementation of the proposals of each plan. It turns out that the regulation is not respected, some proposals have created risks where 46617 constructions are threatened and actions are not completed, since the four plans were implemented at 78.57%, 0%, 88.88% and 4.76%.

Keywords

• forecasting
• management
• risks
• legislation
• urban master plan