Avoided and Avoidable Deaths with the Use of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Italy during the First Two Years of Pandemic

Abstract

Italy was the first western country to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has suffered nearly 200,000 deaths so far during the four years of the pandemic. In March 2020, Italy first deployed COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) to treat hospitalized patients. Despite this initial effort, the proportion of COVID-19 patients treated with CCP during the first two years of the pandemic (2020–2021) was very low (approximately 2% of individuals hospitalized for COVID-19). In this study, we estimated the number of actual inpatient lives saved by CCP treatment in Italy using national mortality data, and CCP mortality reduction data from meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and real-world data. We also estimated the potential number of lives saved if CCP had been deployed to 100% of hospitalized patients or used in 15% to 75% of outpatients. According to these models, CCP usage in 2020–2021 saved between 385–1304 lives, but this number would have increased to 17,751–60,079 if 100% of inpatients had been transfused with CCP. Similarly, broader (15–75%) usage in outpatients could have prevented 21,187–190,689 hospitalizations (desaturating hospitals) and 6144–81,926 deaths. These data have important implications for convalescent plasma use in future infectious disease emergencies.

Keywords

• absolute risk reduction (ARR)
• COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP)
• relative risk reduction (RRR)