Integrated land use land cover-energy modeling framework for solar energy planning in the future expansion areas; the case of Luxor city Region, Egypt

Abstract

Egypt, as a sunbelt country, has significant potential for solar energy. The region is also experiencing rapid urbanization and overpopulation, leading to an increased demand for energy supply. The increasing demand for electricity could be effectively met through solar power generation, especially in expansion areas. This study seeks to combine land use and energy modeling approaches to explore suitable locations for deploying solar farms, taking into account spatial features and future energy requirements in these expansion areas. To this aim, an integrated Land Use Land Cover−Energy model is developed to forecast future expansion areas in the Luxor city region as the study area in Egypt in 2043 and to identify highly suitable sites for solar farm installations that align with various energy demand scenarios in these areas. The model integrates Cellular Automata and Markov chain methods to predict future simulated land use land cover and expansion areas, considering the impact of both physical and neighborhood driving factors. The future energy demand of the expansion areas is forecasted, using the demographic characteristics of the study area. The findings revealed that the projected expansion area includes 150.8 ha for residential development and 149.31 ha for agricultural activities. The total energy demand for these areas is estimated at 155.84 GWh. Based on the results, five solar sites are determined to fully meet the future energy needs of the residential and agricultural expansion areas.

Keywords

• Land use land cover (LULC)
• Urban expansion
• Solar farms
• Energy demand