Hierarchical deep compartment modeling: A workflow to leverage machine learning and Bayesian inference for hierarchical pharmacometric modeling

Abstract

Abstract Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling serves as the cornerstone for understanding drug behavior within a specific population. It integrates subject covariates to elucidate the variability in PK parameters, thus enhancing predictive accuracy. However, covariate modeling within this framework can be intricate and time‐consuming due to the often obscure structural relationship between covariates and PK parameters. Previous attempts, such as deep compartment modeling (DCM), aimed to streamline this process using machine learning techniques. Nonetheless, DCM fell short in assessing residual errors and interindividual variability (IIV), potentially leading to model misspecification and overfitting. Furthermore, DCM lacked the ability to quantify model uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce hierarchical deep compartment modeling (HDCM) as an advancement of DCM. HDCM harnesses machine learning to discern the interplay between covariates and PK parameters while simultaneously evaluating diverse levels of random effects and quantifying uncertainty through Bayesian inference. This tutorial provides a comprehensive application of the HDCM workflow using open‐source Julia tools.