Decadal surface temperature trends in India based on a new high-resolution data set

Abstract

Abstract A new comprehensive surface temperature data set for India is used to document changes in Indian temperature over seven decades, in order to examine the patterns and possible effects of global warming. The data set is subdivided into pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon categories in order to study the temperature patterns in each of these periods. When the decade means in maximum, minimum and daily mean temperature for the 2000s are compared to those of the 1950s, a consistent pattern of warming is found over northwestern and southern India, and a pattern of cooling is seen in a broad zone anchored over northeastern India and extending southwestward across central India. These patterns are explained by the presence of a large region of anthropogenic brown haze over India and adjacent ocean regions. These aerosols absorb solar radiation, leading to warming of the haze layer over northeastern and central India and to cooling of the surface air beneath. The heated air rises and then sinks to the north and south of the haze region over northwestern and southern India, warming the air by compression as it sinks in those regions. The possible impact of these temperature patterns on Indian agriculture is considered.