Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo

Abstract

Predicting Business Failure Using Cash Flow Metrics The purpose of this research is to examine the efficiency of cash flow metrics to forecast the probability of default of companies. Through a logistic regression model, the information of 58 companies with financial distress and 54 healthy companies had been analyzed for a period of 5 years. The results indicate that five of the ten metrics analyzed are efficient predictors of the probability of bankruptcy, with a correct prediction percentage of 87.73% of the cases. Similarly, it was determined that healthy companies and companies with financial difficulties have statistically different flow metrics from each other, so a greater use of cash flow metrics in financial analysis is recommended. The limitation of this study was to conform the sample of companies declared in default as of December 31, 2019. This research contributes to knowledge by demonstrating that cash flow metrics are a reliable tool in forecasting the probability serious financial problems in the context of Mexico.

Keywords

• probabilidad de quiebra, regresión logística, métricas de flujo, dificultades financieras