Identifying the most important factors affecting tax evasion in Iran's economy and investigating how they affect over time

Abstract

This study aims to model tax evasion and identify how these factors affect tax evasion. The current research is in the field of applied research. To achieve this purpose, the Bayesian averaging method has been used in the period from 1370 to 1399 in MATLAB 2021.In this research, 62 variables affecting tax evasion were included in the model and using the Bayesian averaging model approach, from 1 to 12 non-fragile variables affecting tax evasion were identified. The results show the fact that the inflation rate is the most non-fragile variable affecting tax evasion. Also, based on the results of the TVPFAVAR model, it was observed that the shock effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, unemployment, budget deficit) on tax evasion was generally positive and strong, while the effect of cultural variables (tax culture, tax effort, tax morale), tax fairness and tax justice), generally has a small and negative effect on this variable.

Keywords

• tax evasion
• tax culture
• tax guilds
• tax effort
• bayesian averaging