Probabilistic modeling of multifunction radars with autoregressive kernel mixture network

Abstract

The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars (MFRs) pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance. Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrained models, posing challenges for non-cooperative applications. This paper introduces a novel approach to model MFRs using a Bayesian network, where the conditional probability density function is approximated by an autoregressive kernel mixture network (ARKMN). Utilizing the estimated probability density function, a dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for denoising and detecting change points in the intercepted MFRs pulse trains. Simulation results affirm the proposed method's efficacy in modeling MFRs, outperforming the state-of-the-art in pulse train denoising and change point detection.

Keywords

• Probabilistic forecasting
• Multifunction radar
• Unsupervised learning
• Change point detection
• Outlier detection