Frontiers in Pediatrics (Nov 2024)
Nomogram for predicting testicular yolk sac tumor in children based on age, alpha-fetoprotein, and ultrasonography
Abstract
ObjectiveTo establish a predictive model for distinguishing testicular benign or yolk sac tumors in children.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed data for 119 consecutive patients with unilateral testicular tumors treated at a single institution from June 2014 to July 2020. The patients were divided into the benign (n = 90) and yolk sac (n = 29) tumor groups based on the pathological diagnosis. We recorded patient age, serum markers [serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotropin], and tumor ultrasonic findings (maximum diameter, ultrasonic echo, blood flow signal). Predictive factors were identified using descriptive statistical methods. A nomogram was established for preoperative prediction. An additional 46 patients were used as a validation cohort to verify the model.ResultsPatients with testicular yolk sac tumors were younger (median age: 14.0 vs. 34.0 months, P = 0.001) and had a higher incidence of elevated AFP levels (93.1% vs. 2.2%, P < 0.001). Ultrasonography indicated that testicular yolk sac tumors tended to have larger maximum diameters (26.5 ± 11.3 vs. 16.6 ± 9.2 cm, P < 0.001), a higher proportion of hypoechoic masses (44.8% vs. 8.9%, P < 0.001), and a higher incidence of masses with strong blood flow signals (93.1% vs. 5.6%, P < 0.001). A nomogram based on age, AFP levels, and ultrasound blood flow signals effectively predicted the probability of yolk sac tumor in children, with an accuracy of 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.984–1.003). The Brier score of the nomogram was 0.0002.ConclusionA nomogram based on age, AFP levels, and ultrasound blood flow signals can effectively predict the probability of testicular yolk sac tumor preoperatively, aiding in clinical decision-making and patient counseling.
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