Pizhūhishnāmah-i Iqtiṣād-i Inirzhī-i Īrān (Jan 2014)
The Economic Analysis of the Oil Revenues Increase Impact on Income Distribution with a BVAR Approach: Case Study of Iran
Abstract
The performance of nation’s economy in terms of realization of social justice can be addressed by studying the variation of quantitative indexes such as income distribution, poverty and social welfare. Several studies have been accomplished investigating the role of oil revenues in economic development of oil exporting countries. However the issue of income distribution and the process of the effect of oil revenues on it haven’t been adequately surveyed. There are several theories among the development economists saying the revenues of mineral industries such as oil and gas, cause the intensification of inequality in the economy. Using Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) approach and considering the variables of Gini index, inflation, GDP per capita without oil, share of government expenditure to GDP, proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure of government, and the real per capita oil revenues, we addressed the relationship between oil revenues and the income distribution in Iran in the period of 1973-2010. Six different prior densities such as Minnesota and SSVS have been used to estimate the model coefficients and the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition have been computed. The results show that the increase of oil revenues has tended to increase of inequality in Iran. In addition, the increase of inflation, government expenditure, and the proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure increase the inequality. But the increase of GDP per capita decreases the inequality.
