Magnitude and time course of insulin resistance accumulation with the risk of cardiovascular disease: an 11-years cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) depended on the magnitude and exposure duration of insulin resistance (IR). This study aimed to investigate the associations of cumulative metabolic score for IR (cumMETS-IR) with incident CVD, and to further explore the modulated effects of time course of METS-IR accumulation. Methods We enrolled 47,270 participants without CVD and underwent three examinations during 2006–2010 from the Kailuan study. CumMETS-IR from 2006 to 2010 were calculated as the mean values of METS-IR between consecutive examinations multiplying by time intervals between visits. Time course of METS-IR accumulation was calculated as the slope of METS-IR versus time. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD risk were calculated with multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions. Results During a median follow-up of 10.99 years, we identified 3184 cases of incident CVD. The risk of incident CVD increased with increasing cumMETS-IR (HR, 1.77; 95% CI 1.58–1.98 for the Q4 versus Q1 group), exposure duration (HR, 1.60; 95% CI 1.45–1.77 for 6 years versus 0 years), and cumulative burden (HR, 1.49; 95% CI 1.37–1.61 for burden ≥ 0 versus < 0). A positive slope was associated with 14% higher risk of CVD (HR, 1.14; 95% CI 1.07–1.22). When combining cumMETS-IR and slope, those with cumMETS-IR ≥ median (142.78) and slope ≥ 0 had the highest risk of CVD (HR,1.38; 95% CI 1.25–1.53). Conclusions The risk of CVD increased with elevated cumMETS-IR and an increasing trend over time, emphasizing the importance of maintaining optimal METS-IR levels across life span.

Keywords

• Cardiovascular disease
• Metabolic score for insulin resistance
• Time course analysis
• Prospective cohort study