Market efficiency and global issues: A case of Indonesia

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis assumes that the stock prices fully reflect all relevant information. Under the weak form, the future prices are independent of current prices or in the other words, they follow the random walk hypothesis. Global issues tend to have an impact on capital markets around the world. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess the effect of global issues on the movements of expected returns in the Indonesian capital market from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022. The sample of 755 listed firms is used to test whether the expected returns have a random pattern during the observation period. The results of runs tests and variance ratio test show that the expected return movements are not random. On those results, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis is rejected, and it can be concluded that the capital market in Indonesia for this period is inefficient. The findings of this study imply that the information about global issues does not affect the market. The success of the Indonesian government’s strategy in dealing with global issues (including the Covid-19 pandemic) in the form of a vaccination program and also followed by excellent fiscal and monetary policies has led to more predictable returns in the capital market. Moreover, investors can set their portfolios to get extraordinary returns as the market is more predictable.

Keywords

• CAPM
• efficient
• expected returns
• random walk
• weak form