Forecasting of Typhoon-Induced Wind-Wave by Using Convolutional Deep Learning on Fused Data of Remote Sensing and Ground Measurements

Abstract

Taiwan is an island, and its economic activities are primarily dependent on maritime transport and international trade. However, Taiwan is also located in the region of typhoon development in the Northwestern Pacific Basin. Thus, it frequently receives strong winds and large waves brought by typhoons, which pose a considerable threat to port operations. To determine the real-time status of winds and waves brought by typhoons near the coasts of major ports in Taiwan, this study developed models for predicting the wind speed and wave height near the coasts of ports during typhoon periods. The forecasting horizons range from 1 to 6 h. In this study, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural networks and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) were combined and adopted to formulate the typhoon-induced wind and wave height prediction models. This work designed two wind speed prediction models (WIND-1 and WIND-2) and four wave height prediction models (WAVE-1 to WAVE-4), which are based on the WIND-1 and WIND-2 model outcomes. The Longdong and Liuqiu Buoys were the experiment locations. The observatory data from the ground stations and buoys, as well as radar reflectivity images, were adopted. The results indicated that, first, WIND-2 has a superior wind speed prediction performance to WIND-1, where WIND-2 can be used to identify the temporal and spatial changes in wind speeds using ground station data and reflectivity images. Second, WAVE-4 has the optimal wave height prediction performance, followed by WAVE-3, WAVE-2, and WAVE-1. The results of WAVE-4 revealed using the designed models with in-situ and reflectivity data directly yielded optimal predictions of the wind-based wave heights. Overall, the results indicated that the presented combination models were able to extract the spatial image features using multiple convolutional and pooling layers and provide useful information from time-series data using the GRU memory cell units. Overall, the presented models could exhibit promising results.

Keywords

• deep learning
• radar mosaics
• typhoon
• wind speed
• wave height
• neural networks