Animal (Mar 2024)
GrassGroTM simulation of pasture, animal performance and greenhouse emissions on low and high sheep productivity grazing systems: 1-year validation and 25-year analysis
Abstract
Globally, there is a focus on reducing the absolute methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide emissions, and the emissions intensity (EI, kg CO2e/kg animal product) of livestock production. Increasing the productivity of mixed pasture systems has the potential to increase food (e.g., lamb) and textile fibre (e.g., wool) production while reducing the EI of those products from grazing livestock. The objective of this study was to quantify the differences in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and EI between sheep on Low (i.e., low sustainable stocking rate) and High (i.e., high sustainable stocking rate) productivity grazing systems (PGSs). Therefore, a replicated breeding-ewe trial on 18 paddocks was established across 2 - years. Three flocks on Low (3 × 16 ewes/flock) and High PGSs (3 × 32 ewes/flock) rotated across three land-classes and three paddocks per PGS. In year 1, the observed on-farm pasture quantity, quality, and botanical composition, together with lamb BW (kg), and daily CH4 production (DMP, g CH4/head per day) using Open Path Fourier Transformed Infrared (OP-FTIR) spectrometers data were measured. Subsequently, two simulations using GrassGroTM were conducted: (1) a 1-year GrassGroTM simulation that used the observed on-farm data to adjust parameters: date of mating, paddock fertility, and weight of mature ewes to validate GrassGroTM predictions to achieve accuracy and precision targets; and (2) a 25-year (1986–2011) simulation to analyse the effects of Low and High PGSs on sheep production and GHG emissions across a variable climate. The 1-year validation predictions fitted well with the observed on-farm data for: pasture biomass (kg/ha), DM digestibility (%), botanical composition (kg/ha), lamb (kg) product, and DMP (g CH4/head per day). The subsequent predicted results from the 25-year GrassGroTM simulation showed minimal effect of PGS on the mean DM intake (kg DM/day) or DMP for Low and High PGSs, but this was thought to be due to the biomass in both PGSs exceeding 1 500 kg DM/ha. The EI, over the 25-year simulation, on the High PGS was 16.5% lower than the Low PGS. Additional calculations of DMP were conducted using a recent global equation, giving estimates of DMP that closely matched the observed on-farm OP-FTIR DMP measurements, but these were lower than the GrassGroTM predictions and improved the accuracy and precision. It is concluded that in some pasture situations, managing pastures and stock numbers to intensify grazing systems can allow increased livestock production, without increasing daily CH4 emissions/head while substantially decreasing the EI of the animal products generated.
