地质科技通报 (Nov 2022)
Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting
Abstract
China is one of the countries with the most serious landslide disasters in the world. Major landslides seriously threaten people's lives and property and influence the implementation of major national strategies. Accurate and reliable landslide prediction is the premise of disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is also a significant worldwide scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. Aiming at predicting major landslides, this paper focuses on the core scientific issues of landslide evolution processes, and physical-mechanical mechanisms, and condenses three key scientific issues: landslide initiation correlation mechanisms, landslide initiation physical-mechanical mechanisms, and the theory of landslide process prediction. To solve these issues, the following research ideas are proposed: based on large field experimental sites and guided by system theory, cybernetics, and information theory, technical means, including on-site prototype testing and monitoring, large-scale physical model testing, and multifield coupling simulation, which are applied to determine the initiation classification of major landslides according to the landslide evolution process; the physical-mechanical mechanism of locked-segment unlocking-type landslides, static liquefied-type landslides, and hydrodynamic pressure-driven landslides are revealed; the corresponding initiation criterion is established; the numerical prediction mode and real-time forecasting platform for major landslides are constructed; landslide prediction theory based on physical-mechanical processes is established. It will lay the geological, mechanical, and physical foundation for the prediction of the above three types of landslides, ensuring the successful smooth implementation of major national strategies while meeting the major national needs for disaster prevention and mitigation.
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