Medium-range forecasting of oceanic eddy trajectory

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe capability of continuous eddy tracking has been significantly advanced over the past decades, thanks to the availability of sea surface height measurements routinely collected by satellite altimeters. However, due to the complexity of eddy kinematic mechanisms and underlying oceanic processes, a medium-range forecast of individual eddy trajectories is a challenging task. This study develops an algorithm to effectively achieve a precise prediction of eddy propagation with a ten-day lead time by building a physics-embedded temporal evolution model. The theoretical eddy phase speed, current field, and eddy properties are incorporated as physical constraints. Compared to only considering eddy past/climatological velocities, the forecast accuracy of embedded physics constraints is improved by 21%. Forecasting of 2.3 million altimeter-derived eddy tracks globally shows that trajectory predictions are valid for eddies moving towards any direction, and the forecast error achieves 9.9 km on a ten-day average. After systematically evaluating the global forecast error, we conclude that the forecasting accuracy is geographically correlated and affected by external forcings (topography and wind) and eddy properties (geostrophy and life stage). Achieving accurate eddy trajectory prediction is expected to provide critical guidance for in-situ eddy observations, and bring substantial improvements for understanding oceanic substance transportations and biogeochemical processes.

Keywords

• Mesoscale eddy
• medium-range trajectory forecast
• physics-embedded model
• quasi-geostrophic theory
• altimeter and numerical model products