Econometric assessment of the level of development of balanced foreign economic relations in conditions of uncertainty

Abstract

The article presents an assessment of the factors influencing the balanced foreign trade ratio of foreign economic relations on the basis of the author’s methodological approach on the example of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The relevance of the study is due to the importance of optimizing foreign trade policy through an econometric assessment of factors affecting the balance of foreign trade ratio. The aim of the study is to form a model of econometric assessment of factors affecting the level of development of balanced foreign economic relations in conditions of uncertainty. The author uses entropy, statistical and econometric methods, including coefficient and regression analyses. The paper presents a regression analysis of the relationship between the balance of foreign trade activity, the entropy of exports and imports, the real and nominal effective exchange rate of the national currency against foreign currencies, the degree of openness of the economy, and assessment using the EViews software package. The synthesis of the theoretical and methodological apparatus presented in the modeling of factors affecting the balance of foreign trade activity constitutes the scientific novelty of the research. The study revealed that an increase in the nominal and effective exchange rate of the national currency of each country in relation to foreign currencies, as well as the degree of openness of the economy, significantly increases the coefficient of balanced foreign trade activity. The author concludes that by determining the entropy, quantity and usefulness of information on the share of the main import or export partner countries of the country under study, it is possible to assess the foreign trade activities of the countries, as well as the influence of the balanced coefficient of foreign trade on the nominal and effective exchange rate of the national currency in relation to foreign currencies. The results of the study can be used in subsequent studies to assess the factors affecting the level of development of balanced foreign economic relations of countries, and as a methodological basis for the policy of optimizing the management of the country’s economy.

Keywords

• торговый оборот
• сбалансированная внешняя торговля
• неопределенность
• торговый баланс
• импорт
• экспорт
• энтропия
• эффективный обменный курс
• коэффициент детерминации
• уровень регрессии
• коэффициент корреляции