Shipping decarbonization: E-fuels as a potential solution and the role of resources

Abstract

The scope of this paper is to examine proposed e-fuels (e-hydrogen, e-ammonia, e-methanol) as alternative maritime fuels. A techno-economic analysis is conducted considering the current energy demand of the shipping sector, the solutions for decarbonisation that are based on e-fuels, and the projections and scenarios regarding the energy mix towards 2050, to meet the IMO targets. According to the current preliminary study, apart from the barriers related to technological maturity levels, applicability and safety, there are barriers related to (a) the Well-to-Wake characteristics of e-H2, e-NH3, and e-CH3OH, (b) the existing infrastructure that utilises Renewable Energy Sources and the current and projected percentage of RES in the global energy mix, and (c) the availability of resources required for the development of the infrastructure to support e-fuels’ utilisation. Estimated fuel prices in 2050 that include production and distribution costs, indicate that alternative fuels are expected to be uncompetitive. Though they become relatively competitive when carbon-price is added to production and distribution costs of fossil fuels, the Well-to-Wake Analysis of biofuels and e-fuels proves that a significant RES rump-up is required, which further requires huge capital investment costs and raw materials. Ultimately, a re-prioritisation is proposed targeting decarbonisation of “easier-to-abate” sectors before decarbonising “hard-to-abate” sectors such as shipping and aviation.