Statistical Modelling of 3-Hourly Wind Patterns in Melbourne, Australia

Abstract

Modelling wind speed and trends helps in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. This study uses statistical models to analyze wind patterns in Melbourne, Australia. Three-hourly wind data during 2004-2008 was obtained from the Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, for Avalon Airport, Essendon Airport, Point Wilson, and View Bank stations. A logistic regression model was used to investigate the pattern of 3-hourly winds and gust prevalence while a linear regression model was applied to investigate wind speed trends. The 3-hour periods of the day, month, and year were used as the independent variables in the analysis. At four stations, wind speed and wind gust prevalence were mostly high between 9 AM and 6 PM. The monthly wind and wind gust prevalence were high from November to January while the highest annual prevalence occurred in 2007. The wind speed increased from 7 AM to 6 PM within which the maximum occurred. The monthly wind speed increased from November to January where it attained the maximum, decreasing to a minimum in May. The annual mean wind speed was highest in 2007.

Keywords

• wind prevalence, wind gust, wind speed, logistic and linear regression