The Evaluation of Real-Time Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional (SAR) Model Performance for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Jili Dong; Bin Liu; Zhan Zhang; Weiguo Wang; Avichal Mehra; Andrew T. Hazelton; Henry R. Winterbottom; Lin Zhu; Keqin Wu; Chunxi Zhang; Vijay Tallapragada; Xuejin Zhang; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan; Frank Marks

doi:10.3390/atmos11060617

Atmosphere (Jun 2020)

The Evaluation of Real-Time Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional (SAR) Model Performance for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Jili Dong,
Bin Liu,
Zhan Zhang,
Weiguo Wang,
Avichal Mehra,
Andrew T. Hazelton,
Henry R. Winterbottom,
Lin Zhu,
Keqin Wu,
Chunxi Zhang,
Vijay Tallapragada,
Xuejin Zhang,
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan,
Frank Marks

Affiliations

Jili Dong: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Bin Liu: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Zhan Zhang: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Weiguo Wang: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Avichal Mehra: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Environmental Modelling Center (EMC), College Park, MD 20740, USA
Andrew T. Hazelton: University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Henry R. Winterbottom: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Lin Zhu: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Keqin Wu: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Chunxi Zhang: I. M. System Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA
Vijay Tallapragada: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Environmental Modelling Center (EMC), College Park, MD 20740, USA
Xuejin Zhang: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)/Hurricane Research Division (HRD), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)/Hurricane Research Division (HRD), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Frank Marks: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)/Hurricane Research Division (HRD), Miami, FL 33149, USA

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060617
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 11, no. 6
p. 617

Abstract

Read online

The next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has been developed recently in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to accelerate the improvement of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. The finite-volume cubed sphere (FV3) based convection-allowing HAFS Stand-Alone Regional model (HAFS-SAR) was successfully implemented during Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) real-time experiments for the 2019 Atlantic TC season. HAFS-SAR has a single large 3-km horizontal resolution regional domain covering the North Atlantic basin. A total of 273 cases during the 2019 TC season are systematically evaluated against the best track and compared with three operational forecasting systems: Global Forecast System (GFS), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF), and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON). HAFS-SAR has the best performance in track forecasts among the models presented in this study. The intensity forecasts are improved over GFS, but show less skill compared to HWRF and HMON. The radius of gale force wind is over-predicted in HAFS-SAR, while the hurricane force wind radius has lower error than other models.

Published in Atmosphere

ISSN: 2073-4433 (Online)
Publisher: MDPI AG
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Science: Physics: Meteorology. Climatology
Website: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/

About the journal

Abstract

Keywords