Bayesian estimation of equipment reliability with normal-type life distribution based on multiple batch tests

Abstract

The test of new equipment is usually carried out in multiple batches according to the task schedule and test results. Constrained by the test environment, cost, and other factors, the amount of reliability test data in each batch is relatively limited, which brings difficulties to the accurate equipment reliability estimation work. For the reliability simulation tests conducted before each batch tests, it is particularly important to make full use of each batch tests information and simulation tests information to estimate the reliability of the equipment for small sample tests. This study takes the common normal-type life distribution equipment as the research object, and selects the normal-inverse gamma distribution as the equipment life parameters prior distribution based on the Bayesian method. Combined with the system contribution, the fusion weights of each batch tests information are determined and all the batch tests information is fused. Finally, the estimation of equipment reliability based on multiple batch tests is completed. The research results show that this method can integrate the information of each batch test and simulation test, overcome the problem of insufficient information of single batch tests, and provide an effective analytical tool for equipment reliability estimation.

Keywords

• equipment reliability
• normal-type life distribution
• multiple batches tests
• system contribution
• bayesian estimation