Shallot Price Forecasting Models: Comparison among Various Techniques

Abstract

Shallot is one of several horticultural products exported from Thailand to various countries. Despite an increase in shallot prices over the years, farmers face challenges in price forecasting due to fluctuations and other relevant factors. While different forecasting techniques exist in the literature, there is no universal approach due to varying problems and datasets. This study focuses on predicting shallot prices in Northern Thailand from January 2014 to December 2020. Traditional and machine learning models, including ARIMA, Holt-Winters, LSTM, and ARIMA-LSTM hybrids, are proposed. The LSTM model considers temperature and rainfall as influencing factors. Evaluation metrics include RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. Results indicate that the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model performs best, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 10.275 Baht, 8.512 Baht, and 13.618%, respectively. Implementing this hybrid model can provide shallot farmers with advanced price information for informed decision-making regarding cultivation expansion and production management.

Keywords

• forecasting
• arima
• lstm
• holt-winters
• arima-lstm
• value chain