Anthropogenically forced increases in compound dry and hot events at the global and continental scales

Abstract

Remarkable increases in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have been observed in different regions in recent decades. However, the anthropogenic influence on the long-term changes in CDHEs at the global scale has been largely unquantified. In this study, we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the increased CDHEs over global land areas. We compare the spatial and temporal changes in CDHEs based on climate model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and observations from different datasets. The results show observed occurrences of CDHEs have increased over most regions across global land areas during 1956–2010 relative to 1901–1955. In addition, we find a temporal increase in observed occurrences of CDHEs averaged over global land areas and different continents (except Antarctica) for the period 1901–2010 (with a larger increase during 1951–2010). The spatial and temporal changes in historical all-forcing simulations (with both anthropogenic and natural components) are overall consistent with observations, while those in historical natural-forcing simulations diverge substantially from observations, heightening the key role of anthropogenic forcings in increased CDHEs. Furthermore, we use the probability ratio (PR) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic forcings to the likelihood of CDHEs since the mid-20th century (1951–2010). We find anthropogenic influences have increased the risk of CDHEs in large regions across the globe except for parts of Eurasia and North America. Overall, our study highlights the important role of anthropogenic influences in increased CDHEs from a global perspective. The mitigation of climate change is thus paramount to reduce the risk of CDHEs.

Keywords

• compound event
• dry and hot
• anthropogenic influence
• attribution