Comparison of methods for determining the layer of daily precitation for calculation of the maximum expenses of rain floods (on the example of the Kaliningrad region)

Abstract

Introduction. To prepare territorial planning documents, during design and construction it is necessary to take into account the requirements for organizing a safe living environment, assess the risks of negative impact of surface waters, including the possibility of flooding of the development area. For this purpose, engineering and hydrometeorological surveys are carried out, the maximum estimated flow rates and water levels in the nearest water bodies are determined. When performing hydrological calculations, an important role is given to quantitative indicators of precipitation, including maximum daily precipitation. The article considers a method of increasing the accuracy of modelling the maximum daily rainfall on the example of meteorological stations in the Kaliningrad region.Materials and methods. Data arrays of the results of precipitation observations at four weather stations — Sovetsk (26614), Baltiysk (26701), Kaliningrad (26702), Zheleznodorozhny (26706) were processed in Mathcad. The main source of observational results is specialized datasets for climate research for the period from 1977 to 2021.Results. A significant stochastic relationship between the annual precipitation amounts for the indicated meteorological stations and a weak one between the maximum values of 24-hour precipitation amounts for the year were determined. Numerical parameters of the series of maximum precipitation amounts at four meteorological stations in the Kaliningrad region for 1977–2021 years are calculated. The relative excess of the values of the maximum 24-hour precipitation over the values of the maximum daily amounts at the weather stations Sovetsk, Baltiysk, Kaliningrad, Zheleznodorozhny was calculated.Conclusions. It has been established that with the help of 8-term observations of precipitation, it is possible to increase the accuracy of calculation of the maximum amounts of daily (24-hour) precipitation. The results obtained can be used in the analysis of precipitation and calculation of the maximum discharges of rain floods on rivers with a catchment area of less than 200 km2.

Keywords

• engineering surveys for construction
• maximum flow of rain floods
• maximum daily precipitation layer
• daily sums of precipitation
• kaliningrad region
• statistical parameters
• meteorological days
• hydrological calculations