Base of Aircraft Data–based operating cost prediction of arrival flight delay under short-term weather

Abstract

In the pre-tactical phase of air traffic flow management, flights in terminal airspace generate plans, such as rerouting and holding, as influenced by the weather. Hence, the new flight rerouting and holding path should be confirmed by combining the original flight plan and the short-term weather radar map. Decision-making for rerouting and holding should consider not only flight safety but also the operating cost of flight delay acquired through accurate calculation. A specific fuel consumption model of leveling and descending phases of arrival aircraft in Base of Aircraft Data database was used in this article. Arrival route was divided into several leveling and descending legs, and the fuel consumption model of the arrival flight established. Delay time and fuel costs of the arrival flight attributed to the execution of a rerouting strategy and holding procedure were calculated, respectively. The operating cost prediction model of flight delay in the terminal area with consideration of the aircraft model and arrival route were established, and decision-making support was provided for diverted operation in the terminal in relation to flight delay cost. Finally, arrival routes in the terminal area in Shanghai were subdivided into different flight legs. The delay cost of the main aircraft model was calculated and a comparative analysis of arrival delay cost obtained through theoretical calculation and quick access recorder of the actual flight data was conducted. The results indicated that the proposed prediction model of flight delay cost could provide a relatively accurate basis for decision-making in aviation operation.