Predicting the number of road accidents involving personal mobility aids on the example of Krasnodar krai

Abstract

Introduction. Nowadays personal mobility aids (SIMs) are in active demand. According to the data of the mass media, the considered means of mobility are particularly popular in southern cities, such as the cities of Krasnoyarsk region, in which 190 accidents involving SIMs occurred during the period of 2018–2023. In order to assess the changing situation in the field of accidents involving SIMs in the scale of southern cities, a model for predicting the number of accidents involving the considered means of transportation within the framework of this study using the example of Krasnodar Krai was developed.Methods and Materials. In order to predict the number of traffic accidents, mathematical modelling methods have been used as a research method, in particular the science of econometrics has been applied, which is quite often used to evaluate statistical indicators from a mathematical point of view.Results. The authors have developed a model for predicting the number of accidents involving SIM for Krasnodar region with a reliability of 67%.Conclusion. It was found that the increasing nature of change in the considered quantities can be described using a multiplicative model consisting of three components – seasonal, trend and random. The calculation of all components enables to determine the type of model (), which can calculate the number of accidents involving SIM for the subject (Krasnodar Krai) under consideration.

Keywords

• personal mobility aids
• road accidents
• time series
• econometrics
• multiplicative model
• forecasting