Modeling of waiting time to first employment of graduates at wolkite university, Ethiopia: Application of accelerated failure time models

Abstract

In Sub-Saharan African countries like Ethiopia, the waiting time for graduates before having their first job is very high. This study aimed at predicting the waiting time to get their first job and the effects of the associated factors. A retrospective study was conducted based on the 2021 graduate tracer survey data at Wolkite University. By considering the complete information on the total of 2069 graduates, the accelerated failure time model was used to identify the different factors. The median waiting time to first employment for the graduates was 17 months. The Weibull accelerated failure time model was the most efficient model to examine the waiting time among other survival models. It revealed that graduates from all colleges had shorter waiting times when compared to colleges of agriculture and natural resource. Graduates who scored lower have been waiting longer to get their first employment when compared to the high scorer. Graduates who were from Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, and other regions have been waiting for about 1.30, 1.18, 1.93, and 1.38 times longer, respectively, compared to those who were from Addis Ababa. Also, graduates who search for a job through relations and others had shorter waiting times when compared to those searching through public advertisements. College of graduates, CGPA, region, ways of searching for a job, and numbers of applications were statistically significant factors identified. So considering these factors is vital to produce labor market-oriented professionals hired within a short time.

Keywords

• Survival analysis
• time to first employment
• accelerated failure time model
• Employment