Optimal time-dependent SUC model for COVID-19 pandemic in India

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we propose a numerical algorithm to obtain the optimal epidemic parameters for a time-dependent Susceptible-Unidentified infected-Confirmed (tSUC) model. The tSUC model was developed to investigate the epidemiology of unconfirmed infection cases over an extended period. Among the epidemic parameters, the transmission rate can fluctuate significantly or remain stable due to various factors. For instance, if early intervention in an epidemic fails, the transmission rate may increase, whereas appropriate policies, including strict public health measures, can reduce the transmission rate. Therefore, we adaptively estimate the transmission rate to the given data using the linear change points of the number of new confirmed cases by the given cumulative confirmed data set, and the time-dependent transmission rate is interpolated based on the estimated transmission rates at linear change points. The proposed numerical algorithm preprocesses actual cumulative confirmed cases in India to smooth it and uses the preprocessed data to identify linear change points. Using these linear change points and the tSUC model, it finds the optimal time-dependent parameters that minimize the difference between the actual cumulative confirmed cases and the computed numerical solution in the least-squares sense. Numerical experiments demonstrate the numerical solution of the tSUC model using the optimal time-dependent parameters found by the proposed algorithm, validating the performance of the algorithm. Consequently, the proposed numerical algorithm calculates the time-dependent transmission rate for the actual cumulative confirmed cases in India, which can serve as a basis for analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic in India.

Keywords

• SIR model
• Time-dependent SUC model
• COVID-19 pandemic
• Time varying SUC model