Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Including Na, Age, and Sex Is Powerful Predictor of Survival in COVID-19 Patients on Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Abstract

Aim: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is resource-intensive, is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and requires careful patient selection. This study examined whether the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a suitable predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively assessed patients with COVID-19 on ECMO at our institution from March 2020 to May 2021. MELD scoring was performed using laboratory values recorded prior to ECMO initiation. A multiple logistic regression model was established. Results: A total of 66 patients with COVID-19 on ECMO were included (median age of 58.5 years; 83.3% male). The in-hospital mortality was 74.2%. In relation to mortality, patients with MELD Na scores >13.8 showed 6.5-fold higher odds, patients aged >53.5 years showed 18.4-fold higher odds, and male patients showed 15.9-fold higher odds. The predictive power of a model combining the MELD Na with age and sex was significant (AUC = 0.883, p < 0.001). The findings in the COVID-19 patients were not generalizable to a group of non-COVID-19 patients on ECMO. Conclusions: A model combining the MELD Na, age, and sex has high predictive power for in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 on ECMO, and it may be clinically useful for guiding patient selection in critically ill COVID-19 patients both now and in the future, should the virus widely re-emerge.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• ECMO
• predictors
• MELD
• in-hospital mortality