The route choice of hazardous material transportation with value-at-risk model using chance measure in uncertain environments

Abstract

This article combines a value-at-risk model with fuzzy theory and proposes a model using chance measure based on the value-at-risk model named chance-value-at-risk (ChVaR). The proposed model considers two measures, probability measure and credibility measure. The objective of this model is to determine the best route schedule that minimizes the risk at certain probability levels and credibility levels. For the proposed model, the correctness of its founding is proven. A detailed solution procedure is presented and tested to solve the ChVaR model. To verify the applicability of the model, two different scale cases are given: the first case indicates that the model can provide a satisfactory solution within a relatively small error range, and the second case routes the path of hazardous material transportation in Changchun, China. According to different probability levels and credibility levels, the ChVaR model provides different paths and multiple alternative choices for a decision maker. This point is important in practical scenarios.