Prognostic Value of Macrophage Inflammatory Protein-3alpha (MIP3-Alpha) and Severity Scores in Elderly Patients with Sepsis

Abstract

Min Liu, Yun-Jiao Duan, Ye Zhang, Jun Yang, Bing Wei, Junyu Wang Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, & Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Clinical Center for Medicine in Acute Infection, Capital Medical University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Bing Wei; Junyu Wang, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: This study examines the effectiveness of MIP-3alpha and severity scores in determining the prognosis of elderly sepsis patients.Methods: From October 2020 to April 2021, a total of 171 elderly sepsis patients were admitted to the Emergency Department of the Shijingshan Branch of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University. According to the 28-day mortality rate, they were divided into two groups: survivors (48 cases) and deaths (123 cases). At admission, severity scores which are the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were calculated. The logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors associated with 28-day mortality in elderly sepsis patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the value of MIP-3alpha, SOFA, and APACHE II in the evaluation of 28-day mortality in elderly sepsis patients.Results: MIP-3alpha, SOFA and APACHE II of the death group were significantly higher than those of the survival group (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MIP-3alpha, SOFA, APACHE II, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of senile sepsis (P < 0.05). Analysis of the ROC curve revealed that MIP-3alpha, SOFA, APACHE II had predictive value for the 28-day prognosis of senile sepsis (all P < 0.01). Combing with MIP-3alpha and SOFA showed better predictive ability (Z1 = 3.733, Z2 = 2.996, both P < 0.01), compared to detecting MIP-3alpha and SOFA alone.Conclusion: In senile sepsis, MIP-3alpha, SOFA, APACHE II and SBP are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. The combination of MIP-3alpha and SOFA can further enhance the predictive value of 28-day mortality in patients with senile sepsis and provide some reference value for the evaluation and treatment of senile sepsis.Keywords: sepsis, the elderly, MIP-3alpha, prognosis

Keywords

• sepsis
• the elderly
• mip-3alpha
• prognosis