A simulation study evaluating how population survival and genetic diversity in a newly established population can be affected by propagule size, extinction rates, and initial heterozygosity

Abstract

The introduction and establishment of invasive species in regions outside their native range, is one of the major threats for the conservation of ecosystems, affecting native organisms and the habitat where they live in, causing substantial biological and monetary losses worldwide. Due to the impact of invasive species, it is important to understand what makes some species more invasive than others. Here, by simulating populations using a forward-in-time approach combining ecological and single polymorphic nucleotides (SNPs) we evaluated the relation between propagule size (number of individuals = 2, 10, 100, and 1,000), extinction rate (with values 2%, 5%, 10%, and 20%), and initial heterozygosity (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5) on the population survival and maintenance of the heterozygosity of a simulated invasive crab species over 30 generations assuming a single introduction. Our results revealed that simulated invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 2–1,000 individuals experiencing a high extinction rate (10–20% per generation) were able to maintain over 50% of their initial heterozygosity during the first generations and that under scenarios with lower extinction rates invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 10–1,000 individuals can survive up to 30 generations and maintain 60–100% of their initial heterozygosity. Our results can help other researchers better understand, how species with small propagule sizes and low heterozygosities can become successful invaders.

Keywords

• Forward-in-time
• Simulations
• Invasive species
• Non-native species
• Marine species