Analyzing risk factors for second malignancies in early gastric carcinoma from the SEER database

Abstract

Abstract This retrospective study analyzed a large population of gastric cancer (GC) patients treated between 2010 and 2015 to investigate the clinical features and predictive risk factors for developing secondary primary malignancies (SPMs). The cumulative incidence of SPM was assessed using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Competing risk analyses adjusted for mortality were conducted using stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models and multivariate analyses to identify independent predictors of SPM. A total of 3289 out of 167,747 GC patients were included in the analytic cohort, with 155 patients diagnosed with SPM. Patients whose histologic type other than adenocarcinomas (AC) and signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) emerged as an independent risk factor for developing SPM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.262, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.146–4.465, P = 0.019) in multivariate Cox regression analysis. The surgical method, including biopsy/local excision (HR 2.3, [CI] 1.291–4.095, P = 0.005) and subtotal/total resection ([HR] 1.947, [CI] 1.028–3.687, P = 0.041), chemotherapy ([HR] 1.527, [CI] 1.006–2.316, P = 0.047), and histologic type ([HR] 2.318, [CI] 1.193–4.504, P = 0.013)), were identified as independent risk factors in the competitive risk model. Subgroup analyses, stratified by chemotherapy, revealed an increased risk of SPM among older patients. Furthermore, a nomogram was developed and internally validated to predict the cumulative incidence of SPM in GC patients (C-index = 0.73 for 72 months). These findings suggested that in specific histologic types of GC, the lymph node infiltration region missed after local surgical resection, and concomitant chemotherapy would have an increased risk of SPM for cancer survivors.

Keywords

• Second primary malignancies
• Nomogram
• Competitive proportional hazard model
• Gastric carcinoma
• Harrell concordance index