Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов (Aug 2017)
Prediction of cadastral value of land in a single-industry town by the regression model
Abstract
Due to unstable economic situation in Russia, there is a high rate of change in indicators of city-forming enterprises economic activity. It has significant effect on ecological, social conditions of monotowns as well as on economic conditions related to real estate prices. Assessment and forecasting the influence of the city-forming enterprise economic activity on open market and cadastral value of lands of monotowns are important tasks for management of industry activities as well as for researching the perspective of development of the monotown real estate market. The mail aim of the study is to develop the forecast model of land cadastral cost in monotowns considering the effect of the city-forming enterprises economic activity factors. The methods used in the study. Applying the the regression analysis the authors have developed the model of dependence of land cost in monotowns on the offered indicators of economic activity of the city-forming enterprises. The method of correlation analysis revealed the indicators exerting reliable impact on the cost of city lands; classification of monotowns is carried out by the cluster analysis method; the recession analysis method model was used to develop the dependence model of land cost in the researched objects on the factors of economic activity of the city-forming enterprises (linear, logarithmic and regression of the second order). For each model the authors determined the quality coefficients and chose the best dependence. The results. By the results of quality check and statistical certainty of the offered models it is revealed that the linear regression model describes the researched dependence in the best way. It is established as well that the land cost in the researched monotowns is most influenced by such indicators of economic activity of the city-forming enterprises as population in the monotown, capacity of production of the city-forming enterprise, the index of atmosphere pollution in the monotown. The developed classification of the monotowns of the Northwestern Federal District, in addition to the purposes of the research, can be applied in case of cadastral assessment of lands of monotowns.
