A non-linear ensemble model-based surgical risk calculator for mixed data from multiple surgical fields

Abstract

Abstract Background The misestimation of surgical risk is a serious threat to the lives of patients when implementing surgical risk calculator. Improving the accuracy of postoperative risk prediction has received much attention and many methods have been proposed to cope with this problem in the past decades. However, those linear approaches are inable to capture the non-linear interactions between risk factors, which have been proved to play an important role in the complex physiology of the human body, and thus may attenuate the performance of surgical risk calculators. Methods In this paper, we presented a new surgical risk calculator based on a non-linear ensemble algorithm named Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model, and explored the corresponding pipeline to support it. In order to improve the practicability of our approach, we designed three different modes to deal with different data situations. Meanwhile, considering that one of the obstacles to clinical acceptance of surgical risk calculators was that the model was too complex to be used in practice, we reduced the number of input risk factors according to the importance of them in GBDT. In addition, we also built some baseline models and similar models to compare with our approach. Results The data we used was three-year clinical data from Surgical Outcome Monitoring and Improvement Program (SOMIP) launched by the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong. In all experiments our approach shows excellent performance, among which the best result of area under curve (AUC), Hosmer–Lemeshow test ( $${{\mathrm{HL}}}_{\hat{c}}$$ HL c ^ ) and brier score (BS) can reach 0.902, 7.398 and 0.047 respectively. After feature reduction, the best result of AUC, $${\mathrm{HL}}_{\hat{c}}$$ HL c ^ and BS of our approach can still be maintained at 0.894, 7.638 and 0.060, respectively. In addition, we also performed multiple groups of comparative experiments. The results show that our approach has a stable advantage in each evaluation indicator. Conclusions The experimental results demonstrate that NL-SRC can not only improve the accuracy of predicting the surgical risk of patients, but also effectively capture important risk factors and their interactions. Meanwhile, it also has excellent performance on the mixed data from multiple surgical fields.

Keywords

• Surgical risk calculator
• Gradient boosting decision tree
• Machine learning
• Clinical decision support system