Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (Sep 2021)
Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space
Abstract
Typhoon storm surge disasters are one of the main restrictive factors of sustainable development in coastal areas. They are one of several important tasks in disaster prevention and reduction in coastal areas and require reasonable and accurate calculations of wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas to predict and resist typhoon storm surge disasters. In this paper, the design wave height estimation method based on the stochastic process and the principle of maximum entropy are theoretically advanced, and it can provide a new idea as well as a new method for the estimation of the return level for marine environmental elements under the influence of extreme weather. The model uses a family of random variables to reflect the influence of a typhoon on wave height at different times and then displays the statistical characteristics of wave height in time and space. At the same time, under the constraints of the given observations, the maximum uncertainty of the unobtainable data is maintained. The new model covers the compound extreme value distribution model that has been widely used and overcomes the subjective interference of the artificially selected distribution function—to a certain extent. Taking the typhoon wave height data of Naozhou Observatory as an example, this paper analyzes the probability of typhoon occurrence frequency at different times and the characteristics of typhoon intensity in different time periods. We then calculate the wave height return level and compare it with traditional calculation models. The calculation results show that the new model takes into account the time factor and the interaction between adjacent time periods. Furthermore, it reduces the subjective human interference, so the calculated results of the typhoon’s influence on wave height return level are more stable and accurate.
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