APPLICATION OF THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST OF ATMOSPHERIC DROUGHTS IN ALTAI KRAI

Abstract

The research objective is to identify and analyze the possibility of using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Altai Krai for agroclimatic and meteorological research, including forecasting climate change and predicting the yield of various crops. An agroclimatic assessment of atmospheric droughts within the conditions of Altai Krai was performed using a method relatively new for national agrometeorology. At the moment, in the Russian Federation and the CIS countries, the G. T. Selyaninov Hydrothermic Factor (HF) is mainly used for assessing droughts, which makes it possible to assess the territory water availability by the ratio of the period characteristics with the temperature above 10°С. The authors have compiled the SPI calculator in the Microsoft Excel software environment. The paper presents the graphs of the moisturization course for the period of the active growing season for 31 meteorological stations of Altai Krai, and the frequency of arid events is calculated for compiling a precipitation model for the period of 1964–2020. The paper does not provide formulas described in detail in literature sources. The research results can be used in planning activities in the sphere of agriculture, developing an economic strategy for the region, and strategy in relation to adaptation to climate change. Areas are highlighted that are priority-oriented for taking measures to prevent the adverse consequences of climate change. General tendencies of changes in agrometeorological indicators have been found in those areas where they are the greatest ones. A comparison is made with the work results regarding other entities of the Russian Federation and the near abroad, wherein the possibility of using the SPI method for assessing droughts is analyzed.

Keywords

• atmospheric droughts
• standardized precipitation index (spi)
• linear trends