Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity

Abstract

Abstract Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under “compact city” and “business-as-usual” scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.