Prediction of non-sentinel lymph node metastases in T1–2 sentinel lymph node-positive breast cancer patients undergoing mastectomy following neoadjuvant therapy

Abstract

Abstract Background Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is the standard axillary management for breast cancer patients with positive sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) after neoadjuvant therapy. Nevertheless, when that happens, the frequency of additional positive nodes is not properly evaluated. We aim to develop a prediction model to assess the frequency of additional nodal disease after a positive sentinel lymph node following neoadjuvant therapy. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the ultrasound and clinicopathological characteristics of breast cancer patients with 1–3 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) undergoing mastectomy after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) at our institution, and performed univariate and multivariate logistic analyses to confirm the factors affecting non-SLN metastasis. These factors were included to establish a nomogram, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were utilized to assess the validity of this model. Results A total of 126 breast cancer patients were ultimately included in our study, 38 (53.5%) patients were diagnosed with non-SLN metastases of all 71 patients in training set. The results of multifactorial logistic analysis suggested that lymph node metastasis ratio (LNR), short axis of lymph node and progesterone receptor (PR) were strongly associated with non-SLN metastasis. We established a nomogram using the above three variables as predictors, which yielded an area under the curve of 0.795, and validated with a favorable AUC of 0.876. Conclusion The nomogram we constructed can accurately predict the likelihood of non-SLN metastasis in our patients with 1–3 positive SLN after NAT, which may help guide decision making regarding axillary management.

Keywords

• Breast cancer
• Nomogram
• non-SLN metastases
• Neoadjuvant therapy