Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia

Abstract

Long-term power supply modelling is particularly important for developing countries in providing sustainable solutions to electricity problems. This study presents the first detailed and complete model of the Ethiopian electricity system while considering the unique features (dominance of traditional energy, informal economy, urban-rural divide, low electrification, supply shortage, etc.) and context of developing countries that is developed by soft-linking the OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) modelling frameworks. Better system representation and design of plausible scenarios that explore the potential pathways of the future power supply and demand evolution until 2050 is done by performing sensitivity analysis. Sector wise and technological representation of supply and end-uses at a disaggregated level, assessment of centralized grid-based means and decentralized off-grid methods for improving electricity access are the main methodological contributions. Five policy scenarios are employed to explore different possible futures and balance the long-term electricity needs and resources. The improved efficiency scenario reduces the installed capacity by 9 GW which translates into approximately 11% total discounted cost saving (USD $ 4 billion). This economic benefit has made the efficiency scenario the most desirable compared to the other scenarios. Attributed to lower investment costs and abundant resource availability, the results show that renewable technologies are more competitive and favourable.

Keywords

• Soft-linking
• OSeMOSYS
• LEAP
• Developing country
• Ethiopia
• Electricity supply modelling