Adaptive practices of livestock breeders in the face of climate change and factors influencing their adoption in the arid rangelands of eastern Morocco

Abstract

Climate change is a determining factor in the dynamics and deregulations observed in the pastoral ecosystem of the high plateaus of eastern Morocco (HPEM). Livestock rearing of small ruminants, which is the driving force for income generation and employment, is vulnerable to this phenomenon because of its strong dependence on climatic conditions. The current climate change adaptation measures practiced in the study area and the determinants of breeders’ implementation of these coping actions, are not investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study is to inventory and analyze the main endogenous adaptation practices and the factors that influence decisions on their implementation (adoption) by livestock breeders. The collected data, through a structured survey with a total of 167 herders, were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square independence test, Kruskal-Wallis test and multiple linear regression. Although the climate change adaptation measures implemented by breeders in the HPEM are numerous, varied and endogenous originating from their own initiatives, these local adaptation practices are mostly reactive, aiming at a short-term logic and they have a low to medium adequacy in relation with the main or specific objective of adapting to climate change. The results show that there is a high significant relationship between the total count of coping practices adopted and breeders’ classes, defined on the basis of the size of the sheep flock in possession (χ2 = 1009.529, p = 0.000). According to the Kruskal-Wallis test, there are significant differences (Chi square = 39.986, p = 0.000, df = 2) between the three categories of breeders (small, medium and large) in terms of adoption of adaptation practices to climate change and that they are due to a very significant difference (p < 0.001) between small herders on the one hand and large and medium breeders on the other. In addition, the regression model revealed a positive relationship between the dependent variable (the total number of adaptation measures adopted) and predictor variables (R=.876, R2 = .767, F = 11.878). Thus, the adoption of endogenous adaptation actions was significantly and positively influenced by size of sheep flock (β= .005), secondary occupation is the commercial activity (β=2.246), possession of tanks (β=1.592), possession of motor pump (β=1.439), the main occupation of household head (β=4.766), Intermediate agroecological zone (β=1.648) but was reduced by type of household habitat is the tent (β=-1.257) and perception of temperature change (β=-1.440). Therefore, it is rather the socioeconomic factors that are the most determinants and which influence on the total count of coping measures adopted. Climate change public policy aimed at strengthening the adaptive capacity of breeders in the study area should take into account these above-mentioned determinants, focus its intervention on more environmentally and sustainable actions, while paying particular attention to small-scale herders, who constitute the most vulnerable group with regard to climate change.

Keywords

• changement climatique
• pratiques d'adaptation
• modèle de régression
• déterminants
• maroc