Economic sentiment indicator and its information capability in the Czech Republic

Abstract

The paper focuses on the indicators of economic agents’ perceptions in the Czech Republic. We assume that these information are provided by economic sentiment indicator surveys based on the Joint Harmonised EU Programme. The aim of this paper is to offer the alternate methodology of qualitative data transformation (balance statistic data) in relation with the macroeconomic quantitative indicators. In the empirical analysis we distinguished between the indicators of confidence in industry, construction, retail and consumer confidence indicator. We found link between the aggregate economic sentiment indicator and economic activity. Especially, aggregate economic sentiment indicator copies the development of the GDP. However, partial indicators does not follow changes in the specific sectors of the economy. We also found that economic agents underestimate the intensity of the economic recession after the year 2007.Finally, we cannot recommend the economic sentiment indicator as the leading indicator of the future economic activity in the Czech Republic. Our methodological contribution is in quantifying of the consumer survey results by standardization.

Keywords

• perception
• expectation
• consumer survey
• confidence indicator
• standardization