From Computors to Computers: The Early History of Econometric Computation at the University of Cambridge

Abstract

This paper explores the early history of econometric computation at the University of Cambridge. Using the Department of Applied Economics (DAE) as a case study, the paper documents the transitioning divisions of computing labor with an emphasis on how human computors and computer programmers played pivotal roles in producing econometric knowledge. Since being founded in 1946, the DAE had relied on two ways of econometric computation: computors, who did the computing work through desk calculators, and the “regression analyzer”, an analog machine invented by Guy Orcutt. After the Electronic Delay Storage Automatic Calculator (EDSAC) was put in operation in 1949, a new group of econometricians became the very first group of programmers of the EDSAC. With significant improvements to microdata sources and technology, econometric practices by DAE affiliates boomed in the early 1950s, constituting the first series of collective contributions to post-war microeconometrics. In 1956, Lucy Slater was hired as the EDSAC’s programming specialist, signalling a turning point where professional programmers began to lead econometric computations. Afterwards, econometric practices became a new division of labor that focused more on teamwork and programming expertise. By revealing the dynamics during the historical transition from computors to computers, the paper contributes to the “hidden figure” aspect behind conventional histories of econometrics.

Keywords

• Stone (Richard)
• Department of Applied Economics (Cambridge)
• microeconometrics
• programming