Nature Communications (May 2021)

Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing

  • Davide Scarselli,
  • Nazmi Burak Budanur,
  • Marc Timme,
  • Björn Hof

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22725-9
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 6

Abstract

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Common mitigation measures gradually inhibit the spread of infectious diseases, yielding smooth transitions to large-scale epidemics. As Scarselli et al. show, limited testing may radically change the transition to include jumps, potentially resulting in unforseen, accelerated growth of case numbers.